[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101029 
MSZ000-LAZ000-101200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101029Z - 101200Z

POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD
ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.

10Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF T.S. MATTHEW CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR
NRN GULF OF MEXICO SW OF HUM. CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS
N OF CIRCULATION FROM THE COAST NWD TOWARD BTR SUGGESTS A CONTINUED
NWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS OVER FAR SERN LA HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY WITH
SUSTAINED 20-25KT ESELY FLOW ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS
ONSHORE. MODIFICATION OF PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
MOIST AIR MASS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND LESS THAN 50
J/KG OF CIN. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER THIS
MORNING. 

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN NERN QUADRANT OF
CIRCULATION CENTER AS SAMPLED BY CURRENT LIX VWP /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF
AROUND 200 M2/S2/...POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH
MOST INTENSE SURFACE-BASED STORMS.

..MEAD.. 10/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

29599106 30819110 30878989 30238916 29108937 29019081 

WWWW