[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091802 
TXZ000-092030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091802Z - 092030Z

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE LUBBOCK AREA...BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

30+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK HAS GRADUALLY ROTATED FROM NORTHWESTERN
TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 
STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
PLAINVIEW.  SOUTH/SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LUBBOCK
AREA APPEARS LIKELY BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED FOLLOWING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY APPROACH 70F...SOUTHWARD
ADVECTION OF COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS -16C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG APPEARS
POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS  WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS...BUT PEAK SURFACE GUSTS IN WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

..KERR.. 10/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

34430234 34590196 34090141 33750103 33110088 32750148
32780211 33320251 34020249 

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