[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072009 
OKZ000-TXZ000-072215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072009Z - 072215Z

ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...
BUT NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

AS 40 KT 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  HOWEVER...
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE
TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/EAST OF AMARILLO.  PRIMARY
FORCING FOR ACTIVITY MAY BE SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET...WHICH MAY SUPPORT MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AROUND 22Z.

AS UPDRAFTS INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...AND LIKELY TO
WEAKEN...BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW CELLS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND
08/00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH ONSET OF
RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING.

..KERR.. 10/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35470140 35980164 36220081 35979966 34549945 33939982
33590065 34160126 

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