[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071214 
OKZ000-TXZ000-071445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 071214Z - 071445Z

RAINFALL RATES AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH 15Z...AS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

AT 1200Z....A SQUALL LINE STRETCHED ACROSS WRN TX FROM 60 SW CDS TO
NEAR ABI TO SE OF SJT. AN APPARENT MCV WAS LOCATED AT THE NORTH END
OF THE LINE AND WAS MOVING NEWD AT 30 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MOTION/SPEED OF THE MCV...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SWRN OK
NEAR LTS BY 14Z AND INTO CADDO COUNTY OK BY 16Z.  AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
REGENERATE IN AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MCV. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY DRIFT SLOWLY NWD... STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCV. THE DEEP SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...7.5C/KM ON THE 12Z
OUN SOUNDING...RESULTING IN MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...AND
SINCE THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THROUGH
MID MORNING...SOME RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 5 INCHES.

..IMY.. 10/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

35969818 35669872 35279918 34669984 34309926 34489877
35389766 35749760 

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