[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070703 
TXZ000-NMZ000-070800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070703Z - 070800Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW...THOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF AREA.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NM AIDED LIFTING FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR WRN TX. A COLD POOL
DEVELOPED WITH THESE STORMS...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG/20-30 KT/...EWD MOTION OF SYSTEM AT 40 KT
SUGGESTS THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT EXISTS.  ALSO...PRESSURE FALLS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE
LINE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE.

HOWEVER...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NM LIFTS NEWD TOWARD SERN CO...THE
850MB FLOW ACROSS SWRN TX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND VEER. THE
WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING SUGGESTS THE WIND THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD.

..IMY.. 10/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

31280357 32000354 32520242 32450205 31200177 30520292
30670414 

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