[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070023 
TXZ000-NMZ000-070130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR SRN NM INTO SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070023Z - 070130Z

ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.  SMALL AREAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT AREA WILL
PRECLUDE A WW.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING
FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION NNWWD INTO SERN NM.  REGIONAL RADARS/
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN/SERN NM SWD INTO MEXICO AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS
INCREASED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED
OVER WRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO.  ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35-55 KT.  ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE
STABLE.  LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT
LIKELY DECREASING AFTER 02Z.

..PETERS.. 10/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

31520623 32360549 32470414 30840373 30170387 30150468 

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