[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060623 
TXZ000-060800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853...

VALID 060623Z - 060800Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 853...BUT OVERALL WEAKENING OF STORMS IS EXPECTED AND
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WW.

WEAKENING BOW ECHO AT 0615Z EXTENDED FROM 40 SE LBB TO NEAR BGS TO
20 S MAF. LINE IS ONLY MOVING EWD AT 25 KT AND INTO AN AREA OF
WEAKER INSTABILITY...SO THE WIND THREAT WITH LINE APPEARS LOW.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR STORMS EXTEND FROM 20 SSE OF INK TO 50 NW
MRF AND ARE LOCATED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO MAY REMAIN IN THE BIG BEND AREA AFTER 08Z...THE THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
EXPECTED. THEREFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS UNLIKELY AFTER WW 853
EXPIRES AT 0800Z.

..IMY.. 10/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...EPZ...

31520499 31630362 32050262 32770190 33380182 33070017
30200298 30180614 

WWWW