[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060145 
TXZ000-NMZ000-060345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 852...

VALID 060145Z - 060345Z

A NUMBER OF INTENSE TSTM CELLS CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY EWD
ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 852 AT THIS HOUR. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...MOIST
LOW LEVEL INFLOW...MESOSCALE FORCING...AND STRONG SHEAR ALONG TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE WATCH BOX SHOULD BE AN AREA
REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING INTO A SMALL MCS BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND MORE STABLE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT AFTER
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 10/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

30610228 30470565 33160637 33590290 

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