[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052314 
TXZ000-NMZ000-060045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850...

VALID 052314Z - 060045Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SERN
NM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

STRONG NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SERN NM WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL TRACK ESEWD ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE HIGH VALUES OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COINCIDE WITH LOW LFC AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. INTENSE CELLS OVER LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE CONTINUING TO TAP MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ESEWD
INTO THE HOBBS...WINK...MIDLAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A
TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION.

..CARBIN.. 10/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

31050211 31000482 33430482 33480211 

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