[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052215 
TXZ000-NMZ000-052345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851...

VALID 052215Z - 052345Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF DONNA ANA AND
OTERO COUNTIES OF SRN NM...AS WELL AS EL PASO...HUDSPETH...AND
CULBERSON COUNTIES IN FAR WEST TX. STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING
ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MODEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON ATOP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MOST CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND SERN PORTIONS OF NM LAST FEW
HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING INVOF SURFACE LOW NEARING ELP AND
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG THE SRN
NM WEST TX BORDER AREA THROUGH 00Z/6PM MDT. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
TOPPED BY 30-40KT DIFFLUENT WLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS ON
THE SRN LINCOLN/SWRN CHAVES COUNTY LINE IN NM APPEAR TO BE ANCHORING
ON THE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL CELLS CROSS THIS BOUNDARY
LATER THIS EVENING WHERE GREATER MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST.

..CARBIN.. 10/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31750695 33480662 32730299 30980337 

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