[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051948 
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-052145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850...

VALID 051948Z - 052145Z

CONTINUE WW.

40-45 KT 500 MB JET STREAK HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN CYCLONIC ARC FROM SOUTHWEST COLORADO INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  THIS IS WHERE STRONGER HEATING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOW SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS.

BOUNDARY...NOW SOUTH OF HOBBS AND ROSWELL...CURVES NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE...WHERE ENHANCED LIFT
IS SUPPORTING MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER
EASTERN VALENCIA COUNTY...AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
WITH ACTIVITY NOW INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...AS IT
APPROACHES SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TORRANCE COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS
STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP EASTWARD...ABOVE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO NORTH OF FRONT.

..KERR.. 10/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

34900738 35370728 36000736 36620749 37050780 37560828
37810750 37410663 35730601 34730584 34160583 33630516
33130406 32480322 31920329 32150453 32160519 32300557
32900641 32780718 33340797 

WWWW