[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051520 
TXZ000-NMZ000-051715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/PARTS OF W TEXAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL 

VALID 051520Z - 051715Z

SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...
BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH STRONGEST DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD NOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING
IS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  

MUCH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURVES SOUTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK INTO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BASED IN STRONGER
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE FRONTAL
INVERSION.  THUS...WHILE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND CAPE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS APPEARS LOW. 
HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY
CLUSTER NOW APPROACHING LUBBOCK MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY WINDS
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS.

OTHERWISE...NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF ROSWELL.  THIS IS WHERE STRONGER
FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SLOW MOVING/PERSISTENT CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS.

..KERR.. 10/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

35950558 35840445 35370315 34380168 33210152 32820304
33270416 33500479 33660539 34300623 34740621 35630647 

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