[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051053 
NMZ000-051200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051053Z - 051200Z

A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
AND ERN NM THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH THE ISOLATED THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE
A WW ISSUANCE.

SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SERN
UT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NM. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
SSEWD INTO AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS
WITH SEVERE HAIL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...GENERALLY FROM WEST OF
CVS SWWD INTO NEAR ALM.

..IMY.. 10/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

34500467 34570337 33830315 32090499 32280730 33930647 

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