[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050757 
NMZ000-050900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050757Z - 050900Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT
LEAST 10/11Z...BUT THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR AREA
FOR POSSIBLE WW...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ABQ EWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND PROFILER NEAR
CVS SHOWS ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WHILE ABQ VAD SHOWS WINDS
VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM. THESE WIND PROFILES
INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ROTATE. INTENSE STORM 40 NNE
4CR IS MOVING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO
LIKELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN DEEPER ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE STORM
ROTATION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE
HAIL...POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZED...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM.

..IMY.. 10/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

34810560 35410511 35220314 33930305 33990452 34180560 

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