[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042215 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND PARTS OF WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042215Z - 050045Z

PARTS OF SERN NM AND WEST TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.

ISOLD TSTMS HAVE INITIATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
EDDY AND WRN LEA COUNTIES IN SERN NM. THIS REGION IS BEING MONITORED
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO SERN NM HAS ENHANCED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST AIRMASS AND HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
MCS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
LATEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE AREA EITHER NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNFAVORABLE...FOCUS FOR
ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR INVOF
TERRAIN FEATURES. IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35-45KT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH STORM COVERAGE STILL UNCERTAIN...A WATCH
IS NOT IMMINENT.

..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31180264 31460479 32280529 33180552 33520513 33590425
33320282 32620185 31650180 

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