[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042143 
TXZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 042143Z - 050045Z

ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS
TIME. ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A
REPEAT SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY AS SECOND MCS IN A DAY
MOVES ACROSS SAME AREAS.

A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF SWRN LA MCS WAS
EVIDENT IN WIND AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LONG-LIVED MCS WAS MOVING EAST INTO
BURNET... LAMPASAS...CORYELL...AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN CNTRL TX. IT
APPEARS THAT A CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES IN A N-S LINE. FURTHERMORE... ISOLD CELLS
ARE INITIATING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN TX IN PROXIMITY
TO GREATER INSTABILITY JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST.

STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE
SECOND MCS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MCS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
THIS. HOWEVER...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TEMPS AND NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FUEL ADVANCING
CONVECTION WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...A FEW CELLS...OR CELL MERGERS...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
REPEAT HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG A NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW...WILL ENHANCE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

29609456 29299617 29889787 30629886 31189823 31409800
29979407 

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