[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041823 
LAZ000-TXZ000-042030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041823Z - 042030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NW LA NEAR NATCHITOCHES
SWWD INTO SERN TX NEAR HUNTSVILLE. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT.
THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THOUGH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED...FORWARD
PROPAGATION ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING
CONVERGENCE AND 20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. WEAK
CAP AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD SEWD
PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AND
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE SWD AND
RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR HAVE BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

30709579 31159439 31589282 29939252 29769406 29239524
29819616 

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