[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041514 
TXZ000-041715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041514Z - 041715Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO A
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR LONGVIEW WWD TO NEAR WACO ARE MOVING SSEWD
AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED AS ELEVATED STORMS IN A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS. SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS ACROSS E CNTRL AND SE TX. THE WEAKENING
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TO
PERSIST AS A STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CAP IS
WEAK...AND THE SWD MOMENTUM ENHANCED BY THE COLD POOL MAY SUSTAIN
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE FOR THE
STORMS TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

31709717 31719600 31879425 30679375 30109666 

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