[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041231 
TXZ000-NMZ000-041300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041231Z - 041300Z

...ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...BUT NO WW ANTICIPATED ATTM.

VERY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SRN
STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES EWD ACROSS TX. CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY AS A
RESULT OF MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING IMPULSES. 
MAF 12Z SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...ALTHOUGH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 MB
RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG DUE TO STEEP MID/UPPER
LAPSE RATES. THESE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..IMY.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

30760178 30920346 31880518 32750487 33180382 33180112
31809995 30690080 

WWWW