[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040340 
TXZ000-NMZ000-040645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 040340Z - 040645Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM
AND THE TX PNHDL AND TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACTS ON RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THESE
AREAS. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A WATCH IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME.

VERY WIDELY SPACED AND OCCASIONALLY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS LASTED
THROUGH THE EVENING FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE
TX PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NM AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND
SERN NM WAS VERY MOIST WITH MAF EVENING RAOB SAMPLING PW VALUES NEAR
1.5 INCHES. NEAR SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THIS AREA WAS RELATIVELY
STABLE BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP THE STABLE LAYER...COUPLED
WITH DECREASING STATIC STABILITY WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...
SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC/ETA MODELS AND 21Z SREFS WHICH ALL DEPICT A
STRONG INCREASE IN UVVS AND CONVECTIVE QPF FROM ERN NM ACROSS WEST
TX THROUGH 09Z.

FDX RADAR LOOPS WAS DEPICTING A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SWD BETWEEN CVS
AND LBB. IN ADDITION...TSTMS WERE PERSISTING AND TRAINING ALONG THE
WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...OVER NRN LINCOLN COUNTY NM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND
PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS GREATER MOISTURE INFLOW IS
ENCOUNTERED ON THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A FEW CELLS POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.

..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32890035 32360165 32070283 32070385 32500500 33410571
34390527 34410325 34740188 34610065 33840005 

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