[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022055 
NYZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022055Z - 022300Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY LINE OF STORMS
MOVING EWD TOWARD CNTRL NY NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE NECESSARY...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED STORMS ARE MOVING
EWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NY AT AROUND 30 TO 35 KT. ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO
50 KT. EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE RELATIVELY
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AOB 300 J/KG IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL THREAT.

..DIAL.. 10/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42547698 44677507 44347394 42357514 

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