[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021949 
PAZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021949Z - 022145Z

MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS
SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL PA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH WRN PA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE
OF CIRRUS PLUME. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
LOW 70S OVER PARTS OF CNTRL PA. SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THEY MOVE
INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PA. WSWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR
OF 40 TO 45 KT WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY TOO MARGINAL RELATIVE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS.

..DIAL.. 10/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...

41167665 39917747 39907869 40747869 41477708 

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