[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021826 
VAZ000-NCZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN VA THROUGH N CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021826Z - 022030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND SRN VA INTO CNTRL NC THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS
CNTRL AND SRN VA THROUGH CNTRL NC...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE
OF UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE
LEADING EDGE DEMARCATED BY A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS W VA INTO
WRN NC. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN VA AND NC WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKLY CAPPED. MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND  ISOLATED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 10/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

36127718 35647869 36378014 37347890 38327765 37937697 

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