[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232121 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL/SERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...SRN/CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885...

VALID 232121Z - 232315Z

SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVIDENT ATTM OVER POTIONS SE
TX...N OF I-10.  THIS ACTIVITY -- ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR -- SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD AND NEWD
ACROSS SABINE RIVER REGION AND INTO W-CENTRAL/SWRN LA DURING NEXT
2-3 HOURS.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF TSTMS AND PRECIP EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LA...SRN AR AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX.  VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 150-200 J/KG SRH IN SFC-1 KM
LAYER...BASED ON REGIONAL VWP. AIR MASS FROM SRN EDGE OF TSTM
CLUSTER SWD INTO GULF IS CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG
MLCAPE...BASED ON MODIFIED LCH 18Z RAOB.

TORNADO POTENTIAL FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL AR IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
BASED ON STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING EWD FROM
WRN AR...WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY N OF WARM
FRONT AND SLOWS NWD MOVEMENT OF THAT FRONT.  STILL...THIS FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO ENOUGH OF S-CENTRAL AND SERN AR TO WARRANT CONTINUANCE OF
WW THERE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

34689414 34689027 28989378 28969745 

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