[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232041 
GAZ000-ALZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN AL...WRN/CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232041Z - 232245Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD 20-30 KT ACROSS
REGION WITH INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM SRN SC WWD ACROSS
MCN AREA TO NEAT TCL...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS...AND SHOULD LIFT
SLOWLY NWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF
FRONT HAS BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.  MID
60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
1500-1800 J/KG OVER CENTRAL MS...DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG CENTRAL GA...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS.  MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1
KM SRH 100-150 J/KG BUT SMALL 2-5 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS.  CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...BUT WEAK CINH SHOULD PERMIT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO FORM OVER AL
AND MOVE EWD INTO GA.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

32528837 33168799 33798611 33918491 33498332 32988309
32338357 31378536 31528821 

WWWW