[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232330 
LAZ000-TXZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/WRN AND CNTRL LA /SE AR/NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885...

VALID 232330Z - 240130Z

CONTINUE TORNADO WW.  RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED HIGH LEVEL JET STREAKS.  THIS AREA OF
UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 

MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
CONTINUING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED
BENEATH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS OFF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF LOUISIANA.  AS UPSTREAM
HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 50 KT...AND LIFT NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
ALONG RED RIVER WEST OF TEXARKANA.  THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASING RISK
OF STRONG TORNADOES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO AREAS
NEAR/NORTHWEST OF VICKSBURG MS BY AROUND 02-03Z.

OTHERWISE...NEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

..KERR.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

31039374 31709332 32349268 32689200 32709124 32259130
31259203 30769239 30569335 

WWWW