[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232014 
TXZ000-OKZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232014Z - 232245Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN
EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD
FROM FAR SE NM INTO WEST TX. IN SPITE OF 50 DEG F SFC TEMPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX...DEGREE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH -- AS EVIDENT IN -7 DEG C CHANGE AT 500MB BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z MAF RAOB -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING
SHEAR...MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OF GREATER
IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

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