[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232017 COR
ARZ000-MSZ000-232115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232017Z - 232115Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER

SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS
INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO.  FOR SITUATION IN
AREAS NEAR LA BORDER AND SWD...WHERE REPLACEMENT WW IS IMMINENT FOR
883/884...REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437.

ETA/RUC MODELS EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
THIS REGION SWD BASED ON COMPARISON WITH 18Z SHV RAOB. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN AR...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE SFC.  SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL TX -- WILL
LIFT NWD INTO AR/LA BORDER REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN TX.  AS THIS OCCURS NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW..ESPECIALLY S OF I-40...BRINGING AT LEAST
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. 
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS
WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

34549373 35589236 35459095 35289046 34839035 34219054
34169085 34189159 34169312 34209389 

WWWW