[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231710 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231710Z - 231945Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS.....A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME
SEVERE...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON NE OF
WW 884.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BULK
OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PER LATEST
SWODY1 OUTLOOK.

DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM MGM-JAN-POE AND
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE BECAUSE OF DIABATIC HEATING AND
SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES INCREASING
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z...1500 J/KG BY ABOUT 21Z...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE INCREASING
IN DEPTH AND EXTENT ALONG HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS OVER SRN MS. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
100-150 J/KG BUT SMALL HODOGRAPHS IN 2-5 KM LAYER.  MEAN BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND VECTOR IS SWLY...AS EVIDENT IN ORIENTATION OF CUMULIFORM
CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH HCRS.  WEAK CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED
WITH LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING THAN THE
HCRS...SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  HOWEVER ANY SUSTAINED
TSTMS WILL POSE THREAT OF HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

32789110 32838762 30948838 31009226 

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