[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231738 
LAZ000-TXZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...EXTREME
E-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/WRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884...

VALID 231738Z - 231945Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS WW AREA AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY EACH STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEAR AUS NEWD TOWARD ANDERSON
COUNTY TX...SEWD TO LFK AREA...THEN GENERALLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA
NEAR ESF.  MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON S OF WARM FRONT AND
AWAY FROM CONVECTION...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIABATIC HEATING FURTHER WEAKENS CAP.  ANY
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AND INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONT
WILL POSE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ENVIRONMENT OF LOCALLY ENHANCED 0-1
KM SHEAR.  SRH 100-150 J/KG NOTED IN THAT LAYER AT PALESTINE
PROFILER...AND HODOGRAPH WEAKNESSES EVIDENT ABOVE 1 KM ATTM SHOULD
BE REMOVED AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL
TX...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES.  SOME TORNADO
THREAT ALSO WILL CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT -- AS EVIDENT IN
PERSISTENT GULF SUPERCELL THAT WAS MOVING ONSHORE PORTIONS
GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES AS OF 1730Z...IN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW LCL.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28139775 32049460 32059160 28149475 

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