[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231637 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883...

VALID 231637Z - 231830Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EACH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WW AREA...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ATTM WITH PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED
STATIONARY FROM SW COT THROUGH WEAK MESOLOW NEAR AUS...THEN AS WARM
FRONT NEWD TO FREESTONE COUNTY...ARCHING ESEWD ACROSS POE REGION. 
COLD FRONT -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW ALONG NRN END -- EXTENDS FROM
DFW METROPLEX SWWD TOWARD SJT AREA.  SFC TROUGH CONNECTS AUS AREA
LOW WITH METROPLEX AREA BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...AND IS
PRESENTLY A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL SEVERE TSTMS.

VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAKNESSES IN LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES ATTM...BUT HODOGRAPHS SHOULD EXPAND OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG I-35 BOUNDARY.  AS WARM
SECTOR CINH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP BOTH INVOF BOUNDARIES AND S OF WARM FRONT...MOVING
NEWD.  TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST WITH TSTMS CROSSING
WARM FRONT...AND INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES NOW INVOF
I-35...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME TORNADIC AS
WELL.  SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO WILL INCREASE
INVOF I-20 WITH APCH OF SFC WARM FRONT.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S
F...MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG AND S
OF WARM FRONT NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29519647 29539905 33309612 33329334 

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