[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231515 
OKZ000-TXZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...E-CENTRAL/SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231515Z - 231745Z

BOWING LINE OF TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 15Z FROM WRN PORTIONS DFW
METROPLEX NWD ACROSS LOVE COUNTY OK -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NEWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION FROM I-35 EWD...AND ACROSS
ADJOINING PORTIONS N TX AND SRN OK.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL
AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST
17Z.  OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AS WELL.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION -- NW OF WW 883 -- IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ABOVE SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  SFC
WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SWRN LA...ARCHING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS WW 883...AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z.  EXPECT NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS SFC-700 MB...BENEATH LAYER OF
8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPE
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG JUST NE OF DAL TO AROUND 500 J/KG
ALONG I-40 IN ERN OK.  VWP/PROFILER WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT THROUGH CAPE BEARING
LAYER. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK DIURNAL HEATING OVER
RED RIVER AREA OF NE TX/SE OK...EXPECT LAYER OF RELATIVELY STABLE
AIR NEAR SFC TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32259804 33149728 33589702 34189722 34719719 35369647
35509533 35309455 34259455 33559526 33319560 33329611
32379688 32139816 

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