[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231340 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM/SE CO/EXTREME WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 231340Z - 231945Z

SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1-2"/HR ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NM
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY AFTN.


WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOW A VORT MAX
ROTATING JUST SW OF ABQ. WITHIN LATEST DEFORMATION BAND MODERATE
SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT SFE WITH HEAVY SNOW AT LVS NM. DRY SLOT
SEEMS TO BE ERODING CURRENT BAND...BUT A NEW BAND MAY BE FORMING
OVER E CNTRL NM/NW TX. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF CURRENT BAND WILL REMAIN
INTACT OR ANOTHER WILL FORM...BUT SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC LIFT IS
OCCURRING WITH EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW INCREASING SNOW RATES AFTER 15Z FROM SANTA FE
COUNTY THROUGH UNION COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 6000
FEET...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM LVS AND SURROUNDING SITES SUPPORT ALL
SNOW...WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH RATES FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW. 

ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM AS
NEEDED.

..TAYLOR.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

36960202 36150242 35000567 35290635 35810642 36380584
37140464 37560304 

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