[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230430 
TXZ000-230630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL AND WESTERN INTO WEST CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230430Z - 230630Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH
APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  WW COULD
BECOME NECESSARY.

EXIT REGION OF VIGOROUS MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...HAS SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING
AND INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AS CAPE INCREASES IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...UP TO 1000 J/KG.

ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREAS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 06-07Z...WITH STRONGER CELLS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH/EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS. THEREAFTER...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE MIDLAND AREA...WHICH SHOULD
SPREAD TOWARD THE ABILENE VICINITY OVERNIGHT.  BETTER SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO 25-30 KTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CAPE.  PRIMARY THREAT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL...WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY BASED ABOVE
SLOWLY DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER.

..KERR.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32000223 33580181 33599994 32779921 31529985 30840007
30390115 30950234 

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