[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230858 
TXZ000-231030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881...

VALID 230858Z - 231030Z

SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z ACROSS WEST TX.  GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
EAST OF FST ATTM...WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ELSEWHERE. 
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 11Z TO THE EAST OF WW 881.

CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN TX AS A 70+ MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS
AREA.  SURFACE ANALYSES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATED A COLD
FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SWRN TX...AND EXTENDED FROM
WEST OF LBB TO 25 E MAF TO 40 SW SANDERSON AT 0830Z.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SUGGEST ALL OF THE STORMS OVER THIS REGION AND CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF FST ARE ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...GREATER
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S/ ACROSS THE SERN
PORTION OF WW 881 SHOULD SUPPORT A BETTER TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS
MOVE INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS.

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN PECOS TO UPTON
COUNTIES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A HAIL THREAT
EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED
TO THE EAST OF 881.

..PETERS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

30440302 31850215 32930148 32919965 30430093 

WWWW