[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230003 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS...CNTRL/SRN LA...SW/CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/TORNADO WATCH 880...

VALID 230003Z - 230230Z

TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME... IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT WW 880 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z.

AS ONE HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SOUTHEAST STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND UPSTREAM JET STREAK
CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH BASE OF SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH...STRONGER
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/
JET STREAK APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INLAND OF MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

WHILE BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MUCH OF ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
BECOME FOCUSED JUST ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST/
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE EVENING.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND WARM/MOIST PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

HOWEVER...MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH
ONGOING ACTIVITY WHICH REMAINS SURFACE-BASED...IN WARM SECTOR
NORTHEAST OF VICTORIA TX INTO THE LAKE CHARLES LA AREA

..KERR.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28659736 29689664 31029478 32099356 33039195 33039076
32628979 31708960 30659164 30329204 29929306 28949575
28589669 

WWWW