[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222134 
LAZ000-TXZ000-222330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880...

VALID 222134Z - 222330Z

TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW.

PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WITH POSSIBLE TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT
15 KT...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF HOUSTON METRO.  VWP FROM
KHGX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS IN
PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KT.  IN ADDITION...SUPERCELL
SEEMS TO BE TRACKING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
STORMS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY.  CAPE AND CIN PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THIS CELL MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF HOUSTON.

OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING/DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE WW ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD OUT OF
CENTRAL TX AND WEST OF GULF BREEZE EVIDENT ON KCRP.  AIRMASS WITHIN
WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED WITH
SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
DEGREE OF SHEAR...THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THEY
MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.

..EVANS.. 11/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28879530 28379642 28369822 28899828 29919717 30419393
29829375 29169438