[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221218 
TXZ000-221345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221218Z - 221345Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA FROM NEAR SAT TO HOU
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE STORMS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT MAY PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO.  WW MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT OVER
SRN TX EXTENDED FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER /60 SE DRT/ EWD TO 20 NW
PSX AND THEN NEWD...BUT INLAND OF THE UPPER TX COAST.  REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM COT TO
HDO/SAT AREA...AND THEN TRACKING ENEWD.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER GONZALES AND AUSTIN COUNTIES...AND HAVE PERSISTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION...ESPECIALLY THE STORM OVER AUSTIN COUNTY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  AS
STORMS MOVE EWD EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WARM FRONT. 
THIS THREAT WILL BE DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

..PETERS.. 11/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

29279499 29219634 29069821 29199901 29749921 30159857
30229739 30689607 30759456 30209403 

WWWW