[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211915 
LAZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211915Z - 212115Z

THREAT OF A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN LA
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THREAT APPEARS TO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW.


EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
ALLEN/JEFFERSON_DAVIS COUNTY LINE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
AN E-W ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF
THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
0-6 KM VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...THE AMBIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY ENHANCED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY.
ALSO EWD STORM MOTIONS ARE SUCH THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ON THE BOUNDARY. THESE FACTORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LFC HEIGHTS
SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 11/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

30259230 30299321 30919205 30809114 

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