[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221649 
LAZ000-TXZ000-221845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SWRN
LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221649Z - 221845Z

16Z SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM/COASTAL FRONT BECOMING
WELL DEFINED FROM CENTRAL LA SWWD INTO NRN PART OF HOU AREA AND THEN
WWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 TO NEAR SAT.  LOW CENTER NEAR COT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED
STALLED FRONT EXTENDING INTO NERN TX/WRN AR.  WARM SECTOR REMAINS
VERY MOIST AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER HEATING WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS
EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY.

SUPERCELL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF HOU DURING THE
PAST HOUR...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT EVIDENT ON VWP FROM KHGX.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...TORNADO
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS CELL.

WEAKENING CIN AND INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE SUGGEST FURTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WW
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO THREAT INCREASED NEAR THE FRONT.  SHOULD A
STORM DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR NEAR VCT...STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AS WELL.

..EVANS.. 11/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28879530 28389800 28669910 29379892 29919717 30789386
30679296 29779336 

WWWW