[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211630 
UTZ000-AZZ000-212230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NCNTRL THROUGH NW AZ INTO SW UT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 211630Z - 212230Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY TO 2-2.5 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL THROUGH NW AZ AND INTO SW UT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 6000 FT EAST OF 
A KINGMAN TO ST GEORGE LINE. SNOW ELEVATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY AOB
5000 FT WEST OF THIS LINE BUT MAY RISE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY.

THIS MORNING A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NWRN AZ NEWD THROUGH S
CNTRL UT. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET WILL DROP
SSEWD THROUGH SRN CA AND INTO WRN AZ...MAINTAINING STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE...FRONTOGENETIC AND Q-G FORCING IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW THROUGH AZ...ENHANCING UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM NRN AZ
INTO SRN UT. THE STRONG Q-G FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG FORCING FOR MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THE STRONG SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PIVOTING NWWD
WITH TIME...AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS OVER NW AZ MAY UNDERGO SOME
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 11/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

34831155 35311424 37621329 38431201 38391072 36371170 

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