[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210205 
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-210800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 210205Z - 210800Z

SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1-2 IN/HR RANGE TONIGHT.

VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD AREA DUE TO
VERY STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN.  LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG COLD FRONT. STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH
MORNING.  IN ADDITION...SOUTH FACING SLOPES WILL BENEFIT FROM
INCREASING UPSLOPE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN.

DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SURFACE DEWP0INTS IN THE 30S
UPSTREAM...MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.  00Z FGZ
AND GJT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BURSTS WITH LIGHTNING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FT IN GENERAL
WITH HEAVIEST RATES ABOVE 7000 FT.

..JEWELL.. 11/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

37860724 37710678 37400654 37050644 37030735 37030832
37370873 37580928 37310979 36841005 36340992 36020943
35700959 35881035 36331048 37031065 37451024 37811006
38040972 38210949 38560938 38570914 38250876 38070844
38000811 38050774 

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