[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202311 
TXZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202311Z - 210115Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD POSE SOME CHANCE OF HAIL OR A BRIEF
WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A COUPLE SUPERCELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK NORTH/SOUTH
CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND NORTHERNMOST CELL
WILL TRACK ON OR NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS LAVACA COUNTY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
TRAILING PORTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THE REGION TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO AT LEAST BE MAINTAINED... AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN IMPULSE
BRUSHES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
STORMS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS A REGION OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND 0-1KM SRH BETWEEN 150-200 M2/S2. RELATIVELY NARROW
CORRIDOR WHERE TORNADO/SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...WOULD SUGGEST THAT OVERALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME.

..CARBIN.. 11/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28879572 28409649 28589718 29049722 29549713 29729660
29839565 29259508 

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