[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211115 
CAZ000-211715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL RANGE OF SRN CA

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 211115Z - 211715Z

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH RATES INCREASING TO
1-2 IN/HR BETWEEN 15-18Z.

UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS SRN NV WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAX BY
18Z. FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90 KT JET STREAK WILL FOCUS
VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA...WITH STRONG
90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE INCREASING FURTHER ENHANCING SNOW RATES.

TEMPERATURES AT 700MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -6C OR LOWER ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 18Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
12Z...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY 18Z. DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES SUPPORT THIS. GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE...SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 15-18Z WHEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MAXIMUM
VERTICAL LIFT AND A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION.

..TAYLOR.. 11/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...

32721625 32661677 33951736 34431714 34431687 34181639
33771629 33211629 

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