[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201955 
TXZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201955Z - 202200Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. 

ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK SLY
FLOW ABOVE MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR IS MAINTAINING FEED OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AS SRN EDGE OF LEAD VORT MAX OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S
OVER MUCH OF NERN TX WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60.  MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF
FAVORABLE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CONVECTION PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 11/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30569840 30279974 30350067 30980122 31640092 32469968
32959819 32689680 31789649 

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