[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112029 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA/E CNTRL...SRN MS...SE AL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112029Z - 112230Z

WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
DESTABILIZATION FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.  MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS
REACHED 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING INCREASING SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  WITH COLD FRONT
ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION LIKELY WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS ENHANCED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AROUND/
SHORTLY AFTER 12/00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..KERR.. 11/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30038923 30329099 30929141 32659053 33348991 33118937
33258847 32838702 32058673 31368723 30798736 30338718 

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