[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130823 
NMZ000-131430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 130823Z - 131430Z

SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE
ACROSS ERN SOCORRO...WRN LINCOLN...AND MUCH OF TORRANCE COUNTIES.

DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS
NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO EARLY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ATOP ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
AN EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER
MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SWRN NM
COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER LIFT SPREADING NNEWD.

DIABATIC AND ADIABATIC COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 
SRR NWD TO LVS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO SPREAD EAST INTO SERN NM LATER
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER ASCENT AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO
THESE AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME...MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LIFT
AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE FOCUSED
IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTH OF WHITE SANDS TO EAST OF
ABQ THROUGH DAYBREAK. PROXIMITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY BOOST
SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z/8AM MST.

..CARBIN.. 11/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

33040578 33160659 33790685 34890644 35550578 35500490
34840424 34120399 33280459 

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