[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102327 
OKZ000-110130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 877...

VALID 102327Z - 110130Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FROM N CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK FOLLOWED BY AN
OVERALL DECREASING TREND.

EARLY THIS EVENING...LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL OK SWD
THROUGH CNTRL OK JUST E OF NORMAN. THE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 KT. BASED ON THIS STORM MOTION.. THE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FROM VWP DATA RANGES FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AS WELL AS 0-3
KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DESPITE
LIMITED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXIS AND MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN A DECREASING TREND.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

34649710 36299792 36329681 34709636 

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