[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101957 
OKZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NW...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101957Z - 102200Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE/STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

CLOSED LOW IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER PROGRESSING EAST OF
THE PANHANDLE REGION...ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.  AS THIS
MOTION CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW... WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WILL
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...LIKELY INTO AREAS NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CITY BY 11/00Z.

RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED ZONE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH TONGUE OF MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS
NOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF 40 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM  NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO ENID/STILLWATER AREAS.

AS STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION
NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO
500 K/KG.  DESPITE LOW VALUES OF CAPE... STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZATION/ INTENSITY OF STORMS...WITH COLD
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WHICH MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 11/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

36669883 36819843 36729726 36349646 35739629 35469686
35029722 34419802 34759877 36009881 

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