[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032056 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-032230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CST WED NOV 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MS...WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032056Z - 032230Z

DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN FAR ERN AL WILL HAVE A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS TRACK ENEWD
ACROSS WRN AL.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SE MS
AND SW AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOIST TONGUE WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 200O J/KG. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS IN THIS AREA SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SFC WINDS ARE BACKED ACROSS SWRN AL.
THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOWING SEGMENTS MAY HAVE A BRIEF WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 14,000 FT SHOULD LIMIT
THE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 11/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

32918853 33578824 33638766 33188715 32168721 30998754
30678804 30728855 31238864 32338862 

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